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Rathore, L. S.
- Predicting Future Changes in Temperature and Precipitation in Arid Climate of Kutch, Gujarat: Analyses Based on LARS-WG Model
Abstract Views :215 |
PDF Views:97
Authors
Affiliations
1 India Meteorological Department, Ahmedabad 382 475, IN
2 India Meteorological Department, New Delhi 110 003, IN
1 India Meteorological Department, Ahmedabad 382 475, IN
2 India Meteorological Department, New Delhi 110 003, IN
Source
Current Science, Vol 109, No 11 (2015), Pagination: 2084-2093Abstract
Keeping in mind the challenge of climate change faced by mankind in the 21st century, this study attempts to analyse and predict changes in critical climatic variables (rainfall and temperature) to develop strategies and make informed decisions about the future water allocation for different sectors and manage available water resources. The aim of this study is to verify the skills of LARS-WG in simulating weather data in arid climate of Kutch, Gujarat, and predict and analyse the future changes in them for the near (2011-2030), medium (2046-2065) and far (2080-2099) future periods. Data utilised, for this study, are daily rainfall, maximum and minimum temperature for the period of 1969-2013. LARS-WG is found to show reasonably good (excellent) skill in downscaling daily rainfall (temperature). The downscaled precipitation indicated no coherent change trends among various global climate models (GCMs) predictions for near, medium and far future periods. Ensemble means of rainfall predictions from 7 GCMs indicated 9-17% increase in monsoon (JJAS) rainfall compared to the base line during medium future; however, in the far future this increase is predicted to be reduced and remain in the range 3-12%. Winter minimum temperature is predicted to increase by 0.6-1°C during 2011-2030; for 2046-2065 and 2080-2099 this increase is predicted to be around 3.0 and 5.0°C respectively. Summer maximum temperature is predicted to increase by 0.1-0.2°C during 2011-2030; for 2046-2065 and 2080-2099 this increase is predicted to be around 1.1-1.5°C and around 3.0°C respectively.Keywords
Arid Climate, Climate Change, Global Climate Models, Precipitation, Temperature.Full Text
References
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- Rice (Oryza sativa L.) Yield Gap Using the CERSE-Rice Model of Climate Variability for Different Agroclimatic Zones of India
Abstract Views :298 |
PDF Views:128
Authors
P. K. Singh
1,
K. K. Singh
1,
L. S. Rathore
1,
A. K. Baxla
1,
S. C. Bhan
1,
Akhilesh Gupta
2,
G. B. Gohain
1,
R. Balasubramanian
3,
R. S. Singh
4,
R. K. Mall
4
Affiliations
1 Agromet Service Cell, India Meteorological Department, Lodhi Road, New Delhi 110 003, IN
2 Deparment of Science and Technology, New Delhi 110 016, IN
3 Agrimet Pune, New Delhi 411 005, IN
4 Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi 221 005, IN
1 Agromet Service Cell, India Meteorological Department, Lodhi Road, New Delhi 110 003, IN
2 Deparment of Science and Technology, New Delhi 110 016, IN
3 Agrimet Pune, New Delhi 411 005, IN
4 Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi 221 005, IN
Source
Current Science, Vol 110, No 3 (2016), Pagination: 405-413Abstract
The CERES (crop estimation through resource and Environment Synthesis)-rice model incorporated in DSSAT version 4.5 was calibrated for genetic coefficients of rice cultivars by conducting field experiments during the kharif season at Jorhat, Kalyani, Ranchi and Bhagalpur, the results of which were used to estimate the gap in rice yield. The trend of potential yield was found to be positive and with a rate of change of 26, 36.9, 57.6 and 3.7 kg ha-1 year-1 at Jorhat, Kalyani, Ranchi and Bhagalpur districts respectively. Delayed sowing in these districts resulted in a decrease in rice yield to the tune of 35.3, 1.9, 48.6 and 17.1 kg ha-1 day-1 respectively. Finding reveals that DSSAT crop simulation model is an effective tool for decision support system. Estimation of yield gap based on the past crop data and subsequent adjustment of appropriate sowing window may help to obtain the potential yields.Keywords
Agroclimatic Zones, Genetic Coefficients, Rice Model, Yield Gap.Full Text
References
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- Singh, K. K., Baxla, A. K., Singh, P. K. and Balasubramanian, R., A report on database for rice cultivars used in CERES-rice crop simulation model in different agroclimatic zones of India, Agromet Service Cell, New Delhi, 2010.
- Singh, P. K., Singh, K. K., Baxla, A. K., Rathore, L. S., Kumar, B., Balasubramanian, R. and Tyagi, B. S., Crop yield prediction using CERES-rice model for the climate variability of South Bihar alluvial zone of Bihar (India). AP Chapter of Association of Agrometeorologists National Symposium on Agro Meteorology, at Central Research Institute for Dry land Agriculture (CRIDA), Hyderabad, 2013, pp. 22–23.
- Singh, P. K., Singh, K. K., Baxla, A. K. and Rathore, L. S., Impact of climatic variability on Rice productivity using CERES-rice models Eastern plain zone of Uttar Pradesh. In Third International Agronomy Congress on ‘Agriculture Diversification, Climate Change Management and Livelihoods’, IARI, New Delhi, 26–30 November 2012 and extended summaries vol. (2), 2012, pp. 236– 237.
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- Why IMD Got the Seasonal Forecast of 2015 Southwest Monsoon Rainfall Right
Abstract Views :251 |
PDF Views:76
Authors
Affiliations
1 India Meteorological Department, New Delhi 110 003, IN
1 India Meteorological Department, New Delhi 110 003, IN
Source
Current Science, Vol 109, No 12 (2015), Pagination: 2167-2168Abstract
No Abstract.Full Text
- Impact of Projected Climate Change on Rice (Oryza sativa L.) Yield Using CERES-Rice Model in Different Agroclimatic Zones of India
Abstract Views :237 |
PDF Views:80
Authors
P. K. Singh
1,
K. K. Singh
1,
S. C. Bhan
1,
A. K. Baxla
1,
Sompal Singh
2,
L. S. Rathore
1,
Akhilesh Gupta
3
Affiliations
1 Agromet Service Cell, India Meteorological Department, Lodhi Road, New Delhi 110 003, IN
2 Department of Agriculture Meteorology, Punjab Agriculture University, Ludhiana 141 004, IN
3 Department of Science and Technology, New Delhi 110 016, IN
1 Agromet Service Cell, India Meteorological Department, Lodhi Road, New Delhi 110 003, IN
2 Department of Agriculture Meteorology, Punjab Agriculture University, Ludhiana 141 004, IN
3 Department of Science and Technology, New Delhi 110 016, IN
Source
Current Science, Vol 112, No 01 (2017), Pagination: 108-115Abstract
Climate change is projected to alter the growing conditions of rice crop in different regions of India. Crop growth simulation model (DSSATv4.6) was calibrated and evaluated with four rice cultivars: PR 118 in Amritsar, Ludhiana; HKR 126 in Hisar and Ambala; Pant 4 in Kanpur and Sugandha-1126 in Modipuram on different sowing dates. The average yield of the selected optimum dates was 6391, 6531, 7751, 7561, 4347 and 4131 kg/ha for Amritsar, Ludhiana, Hisar, Ambala, Modipuram and Kanpur respectively. Both temperature and CO2 have increased. The combined effect of temperature and CO2 indicates decreased yield rate in the future decades. The present study shows that rice yield will decrease in the future and this may be due to increase in temperature. According to projection results, for all the locations average yield is higher in the decade 2010, except Amritsar in the decade 2030 and Ludhiana in the decade 2050. The average yield at Hisar, Ambala, Modipuram and Kanpur in 2010 was 7744, 7654, 4347 and 4021 kg/ha respectively. Amritsar and Ludhiana showed maximum average yield of 6880 and 6877 kg/ha respectively, in the decade 2030. Such yield reductions in rice crops due to climate change are mediated through reduction in crop duration, grain number and grain filling duration. These projections nevertheless provide a direction of likely change in crop productivity in future climate change scenarios.Keywords
Agroclimatic Zones, Climate Change, Crop Simutation Models, Rice.Full Text